Management and Approach to Unpredictability in Public and Private Educational Institutions
Abstract
This article addresses leadership and the management of uncertainty in public and private educational institutions, understanding uncertainty as the unpredictability of and lack of control over the outcomes of each educational and institutional process. Managing uncertainty is a significant challenge in education. It is not merely a theoretical capacity, but a strategic response that requires, on a daily basis, a willingness to handle changing situations in the face of critical milestones within institutions. The study analyzed how school leaders managed uncertainty through strategic planning by combining risk analysis, organizational flexibility, and effective communication. This finding is crucial because it confirms that these practices enable adaptation to unexpected changes and support educational continuity. Consequently, the research provides a practical and methodological contribution by identifying comprehensive strategic planning pathways that articulate pedagogical, managerial, and administrative processes through tools such as the Annual Operational Plan (POA) and the Institutional Improvement Plan (PMI). These are proactive tools grounded in risk analysis for anticipating and mitigating the unpredictability of educational environments. The research was cross-sectional in nature and qualitative in approach, employing an observational design to analyze the experiences of five principals of educational institutions in Colombia. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and processed using thematic analysis with ATLAS.ti software. The results underscore the importance of adaptive tools and strategies for managing educational uncertainty, reducing unpredictability, and optimizing administrative and pedagogical processes, thereby ensuring institutional functioning and quality.
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