Hurricane assessment in southern Guerrero (2013-2025) using the Saffir-Simpson scale: impacts and vulnerability to climate change
Abstract
This study analyzes the hurricanes that impacted the southern Mexican state of Guerrero between 2013 and 2025 using the Saffir-Simpson scale to evaluate intensity levels, damages, and regional vulnerability. The research draws on official data from CONAGUA, SMN, SEDESOL, SEDATU, and CONAFOR, alongside specialized literature. We constructed a comparative record of hurricanes Ingrid and Manuel (2013), Max (2017), Otis (2023), John (2024), and Erick (2025), assessing wind speed and structural, social, and environmental impacts. The results demonstrate that even Category 1 hurricanes caused severe losses -as seen with Manuel in La Pintada- while Category 5 Otis devastated Acapulco’s infrastructure. We conclude that while the Saffir-Simpson scale remains useful, it is insufficient for contexts of high social vulnerability. Therefore, we propose complementing it with precipitation and socioeconomic indicators to strengthen risk management strategies in Guerrero.
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References
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Lim, K. Y., & Foo, K. Y. (2022). A State-of-the-Art Review on the Unique Characteristics, Key Driving Causes and Mitigation Measures of the World Catastrophic Flood Disasters. En C. Ghosh & S. Kolathayar (Eds.), A System Engineering Approach to Disaster Resilience (Vol. 205, pp. 229-246). Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-7397-9_17
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Okolo, E. C., Landaverde, R., Doerfert, D., Piñeiro, J. M., Hudson, D., Elbert, C., & Opat, K. (2025). Preparedness, Response, and Communication Preferences of Dairy Farmers During Extreme Weather Events: A Phenomenological Case Study. Climate, 13(2), 29. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020029
Paxton, L. D., Collins, J., & Myers, L. (2024). Reconsidering the Saffir-Simpson Scale: A Qualitative Investigation of Public Understanding and Alternative Frameworks. En J. Collins, J. Done, Y.-J. Zhu, & P. Wilson (Eds.), Advances in Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate (Vol. 3, pp. 241-279). Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-63186-3_10
Pitchaimani, G. P., Santhanakrishnan, S., Rodríguez, S. P., Ibarra, M. A. M., Torres, M. A. G., & Ponniah, J. M. (2025). Eco-environmental impact of hurricane John (September 24, 2024) along the coastal municipalities of Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 197(8), 903. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-025-14274-1
Ramírez-Herrera, M. T., Coca, O., Gaidzik, K., & Vargas Espinosa, V. H. (2025). Hurricane Otis: Category 5 storm effects and cascading hazards in Acapulco Bay, Mexico. Global and Earth Surface Processes Change, 3, 100004. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gespch.2025.100004
Robinson, W. A. (2021). Climate change and extreme weather: A review focusing on the continental United States. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 71(10), 1186-1209. https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2021.1942319
Shaharier Alam, Md., & Hu, Y. (2025). Mobility disruption and recovery in southwest Florida’s elderly-dense communities during Hurricane Ian. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 141, 104648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2025.104648
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Swain, D. (2022). Tropical Cyclones and Coastal Vulnerability: Assessment and Mitigation. En A. Pandey, V. M. Chowdary, M. D. Behera, & V. P. Singh (Eds.), Geospatial Technologies for Land and Water Resources Management (Vol. 103, pp. 587-621). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-90479-1_30
Toscana Aparicio, A., & Villaseñor Franco, A. (2018). Las tormentas Ingrid y Manuel en La Montaña de Guerrero, 2013. La atención de la emergencia. Sociedad y ambiente, 16, 59-89.
Valderrama-Landeros, L., Pérez-Espinosa, I., Villeda-Chávez, E., Alarcón-Medina, R., & Flores-de-Santiago, F. (2025). Shoreline Response to Hurricane Otis and Flooding Impact from Hurricane John in Acapulco, Mexico. Coasts, 5(3), 28. https://doi.org/10.3390/coasts5030028
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Yang, Y., Tilman, D., Jin, Z., Smith, P., Barrett, C. B., Zhu, Y.-G., Burney, J., D’Odorico, P., Fantke, P., Fargione, J., Finlay, J. C., Rulli, M. C., Sloat, L., Jan Van Groenigen, K., West, P. C., Ziska, L., Michalak, A. M., the Clim-Ag Team, Lobell, D. B., … Zhuang, M. (2024). Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture. Science, 385(6713), eadn3747. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3747
Bachmann, L. (2025). Integrating Social Vulnerability into Human Displacement Risk Models: An Event-Based Approach for Weather-Related Hazards [Application/pdf]. 48 p. https://doi.org/10.3929/ETHZ-B-000738124
Bastien-Olvera, B. A., Rivera, A., Gray, E., Mitchell, S., Favoretto, F., Ezcurra, E., & Aburto-Oropeza, O. (2024). Mangrove preservation could have significantly reduced damages from Hurricane Otis on the coast of Guerrero, Mexico. Science of The Total Environment, 957, 177822. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177822
Bathi, J., & Das, H. (2016). Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13(2), 239. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13020239
Bedolla Solano, R., Miranda Esteban, A., Bedolla Solano, J. J., & Sánchez Adame, O. (2021). Análisis prospectivo-educativo del impacto del huracán Max en una comunidad de Guerrero. RIDE Revista Iberoamericana para la Investigación y el Desarrollo Educativo, 11(22). https://doi.org/10.23913/ride.v11i22.877
Behera, S. K. (2024). Understanding the impact of climate change on extreme events. Frontiers in Science, 2, 1433766. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsci.2024.1433766
Bonfanti, R. C., Oberti, B., Ravazzoli, E., Rinaldi, A., Ruggieri, S., & Schimmenti, A. (2023). The Role of Trust in Disaster Risk Reduction: A Critical Review. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 21(1), 29. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph21010029
Camacho Sanabria, J. M., Chávez Alvarado, R., & Velázquez Torres, D. (2019). Propuesta Metodológica para medir la Resiliencia Urbana ante Huracanes e Inundaciones en el Caribe Mexicano. Revista de Estudios Latinoamericanos sobre Reducción del Riesgo de Desastres REDER, 3(2), 28. https://doi.org/10.55467/reder.v3i2.30
Castillo-Loeza, D. E., Romero, D., & Quesada-Román, A. (2025). Tropical Cyclones in Mexico: A Comparative Analysis and a Composite Socioeconomic Damage Index. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-025-00179-3
CENAPRED. (2019). Catálogo de inundaciones 2019. Mexico: Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres. Bing. https://www.bing.com/search?q=CENAPRED. Catálogo de inundaciones 2019. Mexico%3A Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres.&form=SWAUA2
Conforti, M., & Ietto, F. (2019). An integrated approach to investigate slope instability affecting infrastructures. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 78(4), 2355-2375. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-018-1311-9
Ellis, J. T., Harris, M. E., Román-Rivera, M. A., Ferguson, J. B., Tereszkiewicz, P. A., & McGill, S. P. (2020). Application of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale to Assess Sand Dune Response to Tropical Storms. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 8(9), 670. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8090670
Emanuel, K. (2017). Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(3), 495-501. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0134.1
Emrich, C. T., Zhou, Y., Aksha, S. K., & Longenecker, H. E. (2022). Creating a Nationwide Composite Hazard Index Using Empirically Based Threat Assessment Approaches Applied to Open Geospatial Data. Sustainability, 14(5), 2685. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052685
Esteban, A. M., Solano, I. B., Solano, J. J. B., Adame, O. S., & Solano, R. B. (2025). Water situation in Las Vigas from a socioenvironmental perspective. Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, 0(0), 025220180. https://doi.org/10.36922/AJWEP025220180
Ibe, K. K., Chiweshe, O., Ola, M. I., & Kollur, S. P. (2025). Community vulnerability to cyclones: An empirical evidence from rural India to improve resilience. Journal of Safety Science and Resilience, 6(4), 100217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.100217
IPCC. (2023). Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1.a ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
Jadhav, J., Kamble, P., Sharma, D., Manglani, H., Panda, G. R., & Rajput, P. (2025). Socio-Economic Implications of Severe Storms in the Changing Climatic Scenarios: A Case of South Asia. En S. Das & W.-K. Tao (Eds.), Severe Storms (pp. 647-670). Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-7075-5_25
Klasa, K., Trump, B. D., Dulin, S., Smith, M., Jarman, H., & Linkov, I. (2025). A Resilience-Augmented Approach to Compound Threats and Risk Governance: A Systems Perspective on Navigating Complex Crises. Environments, 12(2), 64. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments12020064
Knutson, T., Camargo, S. J., Chan, J. C. L., Emanuel, K., Ho, C.-H., Kossin, J., Mohapatra, M., Satoh, M., Sugi, M., Walsh, K., & Wu, L. (2020). Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(3), E303-E322. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1
Koliyabandara, P. A., Preethika, D. D. P., Cooray, A. T., Liyanage, S. S., Siriwardana, C., & Vithanage, M. (2024). The Environmental Pressure by Open Dumpsites and Way Forward. En A. Anouzla & S. Souabi (Eds.), Technical Landfills and Waste Management (pp. 171-204). Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-52633-6_7
Lim, K. Y., & Foo, K. Y. (2022). A State-of-the-Art Review on the Unique Characteristics, Key Driving Causes and Mitigation Measures of the World Catastrophic Flood Disasters. En C. Ghosh & S. Kolathayar (Eds.), A System Engineering Approach to Disaster Resilience (Vol. 205, pp. 229-246). Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-7397-9_17
Mančić, T. (2025). Climate Change as a Security Challenge, Risk and Threat of the 21st Century and Its Consequences on Critical Infrastructure. International Journal of Contemporary Security Studies, 1(1), 191-203. https://doi.org/10.18485/fb_ijcss.2025.1.1.14
Marshall, J., Wiltshire, J., Delva, J., Bello, T., & Masys, A. J. (2020). Natural and Manmade Disasters: Vulnerable Populations. En A. J. Masys, R. Izurieta, & M. Reina Ortiz (Eds.), Global Health Security (pp. 143-161). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23491-1_7
Martínez, M. L., Silva, R., Chávez, V., López-Portillo, J., Salgado, K., Marín-Coria, E., Pérez-Maqueo, O., Maximiliano-Cordova, C., Landgrave, R., & De La Cruz, V. (2025). The challenges of climate change and human impacts faced by Mexican coasts: A comprehensive evaluation. PLOS ONE, 20(4), e0320087. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0320087
Mezősi, G. (2022). Meteorological Hazards. En G. Mezősi, Natural Hazards and the Mitigation of their Impact (pp. 97-136). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07226-0_3
Mitsova, D., Escaleras, M., Sapat, A., Esnard, A.-M., & Lamadrid, A. J. (2019). The Effects of Infrastructure Service Disruptions and Socio-Economic Vulnerability on Hurricane Recovery. Sustainability, 11(2), 516. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020516
Morán-Rodríguez, S., & Novelo-Casanova, D. A. (2018). A methodology to estimate seismic vulnerability of health facilities. Case study: Mexico City, Mexico. Natural Hazards, 90(3), 1349-1375. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3101-2
Moreno Mendoza, E., Calderón Arellanes, M. P., & Suastegui Cruz, S. (2024). Percepción socioambiental de los productores de maíz, debido al paso del huracán Otis en el estado de Guerrero, México. RIDE Revista Iberoamericana para la Investigación y el Desarrollo Educativo, 15(29). https://doi.org/10.23913/ride.v15i29.2037
Okolo, E. C., Landaverde, R., Doerfert, D., Piñeiro, J. M., Hudson, D., Elbert, C., & Opat, K. (2025). Preparedness, Response, and Communication Preferences of Dairy Farmers During Extreme Weather Events: A Phenomenological Case Study. Climate, 13(2), 29. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020029
Paxton, L. D., Collins, J., & Myers, L. (2024). Reconsidering the Saffir-Simpson Scale: A Qualitative Investigation of Public Understanding and Alternative Frameworks. En J. Collins, J. Done, Y.-J. Zhu, & P. Wilson (Eds.), Advances in Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate (Vol. 3, pp. 241-279). Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-63186-3_10
Pitchaimani, G. P., Santhanakrishnan, S., Rodríguez, S. P., Ibarra, M. A. M., Torres, M. A. G., & Ponniah, J. M. (2025). Eco-environmental impact of hurricane John (September 24, 2024) along the coastal municipalities of Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 197(8), 903. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-025-14274-1
Ramírez-Herrera, M. T., Coca, O., Gaidzik, K., & Vargas Espinosa, V. H. (2025). Hurricane Otis: Category 5 storm effects and cascading hazards in Acapulco Bay, Mexico. Global and Earth Surface Processes Change, 3, 100004. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gespch.2025.100004
Robinson, W. A. (2021). Climate change and extreme weather: A review focusing on the continental United States. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 71(10), 1186-1209. https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2021.1942319
Shaharier Alam, Md., & Hu, Y. (2025). Mobility disruption and recovery in southwest Florida’s elderly-dense communities during Hurricane Ian. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 141, 104648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2025.104648
Simpson, R. H., & Riehl, H. (1981). The hurricane and its impact. (No Title). https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1130000794772982144
Swain, D. (2022). Tropical Cyclones and Coastal Vulnerability: Assessment and Mitigation. En A. Pandey, V. M. Chowdary, M. D. Behera, & V. P. Singh (Eds.), Geospatial Technologies for Land and Water Resources Management (Vol. 103, pp. 587-621). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-90479-1_30
Toscana Aparicio, A., & Villaseñor Franco, A. (2018). Las tormentas Ingrid y Manuel en La Montaña de Guerrero, 2013. La atención de la emergencia. Sociedad y ambiente, 16, 59-89.
Valderrama-Landeros, L., Pérez-Espinosa, I., Villeda-Chávez, E., Alarcón-Medina, R., & Flores-de-Santiago, F. (2025). Shoreline Response to Hurricane Otis and Flooding Impact from Hurricane John in Acapulco, Mexico. Coasts, 5(3), 28. https://doi.org/10.3390/coasts5030028
Wehner, M. F., & Kossin, J. P. (2024). The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(7), e2308901121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2308901121
Yang, Y., Tilman, D., Jin, Z., Smith, P., Barrett, C. B., Zhu, Y.-G., Burney, J., D’Odorico, P., Fantke, P., Fargione, J., Finlay, J. C., Rulli, M. C., Sloat, L., Jan Van Groenigen, K., West, P. C., Ziska, L., Michalak, A. M., the Clim-Ag Team, Lobell, D. B., … Zhuang, M. (2024). Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture. Science, 385(6713), eadn3747. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3747
Published
2026-02-07
How to Cite
Hernández Herrera, F., Moreno Martìnez, E., Moreno Mendoza, E., Calderón Arellanes, M. P., Calderon Arellanes, I. L., & Suastegui Cruz, S. (2026). Hurricane assessment in southern Guerrero (2013-2025) using the Saffir-Simpson scale: impacts and vulnerability to climate change. RIDE Revista Iberoamericana Para La Investigación Y El Desarrollo Educativo, 16(32), e1034. https://doi.org/10.23913/ride.v16i32.2822
Section
Scientific articles
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In order to promote the development and dissemination of research in education in Latin America, the Ibero-American Journal for Educational Research and Development (RIDE) adhered to the Budapest Open Access Initiative, which is why it is identified as a Open access publication. This means that any user can read the complete text of the articles, print them, download them, copy them, link them, distribute them and use the contents for other purposes. Creative Cummons licenses allow users to specify the rights to use an open access journal available on the Internet in such a way that users know the rules of publication. Authors who publish in this journal accept the following conditions: Authors they keep the author's rights and give the magazine the right of the first publication, with the work registered with the attribution license of Creative Commons, which allows third parties to use the published material whenever they mention the authorship of the work and the first publication in this The authors can make other independent and additional contractual agreements for the non-exclusive distribution of the version of the article published in this journal (eg, include it in an institutional repository or publish it in a book) as long as they clearly indicate that The work was published for the first time in this magazine. Authors are allowed and recommended to publish their work. low on the Internet (for example on institutional or personal pages) before and during the review and publication process, as it can lead to productive exchanges and to a greater and faster dissemination of the published work
